Expected Value (EV) Calculator

Calculate the expected value of any trade or bet by entering your probability estimates and potential payoffs for each outcome.

What is Expected Value?

Expected Value (EV) measures the average outcome of a trade or bet weighted by the probability of each scenario. A positive EV means the trade is theoretically profitable over many repetitions. A negative EV means you expect to lose money on average.

Formula: EV = Σ (Probability × Payoff) − Cost

Trade / Option Cost ($)

Enter the premium or cost of the trade. Leave blank or enter 0 if there is no cost.

Outcomes

Probabilities must total 100%.

Total: 0.00%

Probability (%) Payoff ($)

Results

Outcome	Probability	Payoff	Weighted Value

How to Use This Calculator

Enter your trade cost — the premium you pay for the option or the capital at risk.
Add outcomes — for each possible scenario (e.g., stock goes up, stays flat, goes down), enter your estimated probability and the expected payoff.
Ensure probabilities sum to 100% — all scenarios must account for 100% of possibilities.
Click Calculate EV — the tool computes your net expected value and shows a breakdown by outcome.

Tip: Use negative payoff values to represent losses. For example, if an outcome results in losing your $2.00 premium and an additional $3.00, enter -5.00 as the payoff.

Risk Disclaimer

This EV Calculator is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

A positive EV does not guarantee a profit on any single trade. Markets are unpredictable and actual outcomes may differ materially from any projection. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. OptionBots is not responsible for any losses incurred based on the use of this tool.

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